Grist | = Heat Beat | How's the Weather

From: Subject: Grist | Heat Beat | How's the Weather | 19 Apr 2002 Date: Mon, 22 Apr 2002 19:04:32 -0400 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0000_01C1EA30.8925CC10"; type="text/html" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0000_01C1EA30.8925CC10 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://www.gristmagazine.com/heatbeat/weather041902.asp?source=daily Grist | = Heat Beat | How's the Weather | 19 Apr 2002 <= /TR>

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How's the=20 Weather?

Taking = the Earth's=20 temperature

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by Leonie Haimson=20

19 Apr 2002

Global temperatures for March 2002 are in at the Goddard=20 Institute for Space Studies and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric = Administration --=20 and both agencies agree that March was a scorcher, globally=20 speaking.

Based on preliminary data, the NOAA found = the month=20 to be the hottest of any March on the historical = record, 0.77=20 degrees Celsius (1.39 degrees Fahrenheit) above the = long-term mean.=20 Not only was it the hottest March ever, but, according to = GISS, the=20 month demonstrated the second-biggest temperature anomaly on = record,=20 trailing only February of 1998. NOAA concludes that after = three=20 months, 2002 is so far tied with 1998 as the hottest year = ever,=20 while GISS has 2002 as quite a bit warmer so far. 1998 was = an El=20 Nino year, with temperatures expected to be higher than in = non-El=20 Nino years. This year, El Nino has not yet fully emerged, = though it=20 may kick in soon (Planet Ark, Reuters, 17 April = 2002).

About=20 the = data

According to=20 NOAA, March 2002 was also the 71st month in a row = that global=20 temperatures exceeded the 1971-2000 mean. Throughout most of = the=20 world, the month was extraordinarily warm. Temperatures = across much=20 of Asia were above average by as much as to 3 to 6 degrees = Celsius=20 (5.4 to 10.8 degrees Fahrenheit). Weekly average = temperatures were=20 as much as 18 degrees Celsius (32 degrees Fahrenheit) above = average=20 across parts of Russia, Kazakhstan, and China in mid-March. = Dry=20 conditions, accompanied by the warm weather, contributed to = severe=20 dust storms originating in the Gobi Desert and spreading = from=20 northern China to South Korea and Japan. In northern China = alone, an=20 estimated 130 million people were adversely affected by the = dust=20 storms, and in Beijing, visibility dropped to less than 100 = yards on=20 one occasion.

Europe didn't escape the heat wave, = either,=20 with temperatures averaging 1 to 3 degrees Celsius (1.8 to = 5.4=20 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1992-2002 mean. And although = much of=20 the continental United States was relatively cool -- the = 33rd=20 coldest March on record, according to NOAA -- extremely warm = weather=20 prevailed across the western half of Alaska and into the = Northwest=20 Territory, where temperatures rose 3 to 6 degrees Celsius = (5.4 to=20 10.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1971-2000 = mean.

Bleach=20 Blanket Bingo

According to Thomas Goreau, = president of=20 the Global Coral Reef Alliance, an epidemic of coral = bleaching=20 and destruction has hit South Pacific reefs as a result = of high ocean temperatures over the first = three=20 months of 2002. In recent weeks, Goreau has received = numerous (but=20 still unofficial) reports of bleached coral across much of = the South=20 Pacific, including Tahiti, the Cook Islands, Samoa, New = Caledonia,=20 and Fiji. Goreau says divers in the waters around Fiji in = particular=20 have told him that in terms of coral, "Nothing was left = alive."=20 Goreau expects similarly bad news from parts of Australia's = Great=20 Barrier Reef, because in his estimate, ocean temperatures = there were=20 also very high earlier this year.

Coral bleaching = occurs when=20 sustained elevated sea temperatures force coral to expel = their=20 symbiotic algae, leading to widespread injury and mortality; = the=20 coral literally turns white and begins to starve. Many = scientists,=20 including those at NOAA, say temperatures of 1 degree = Celsius above=20 the normal maximum during the warmest months lead to = extensive=20 bleaching. Goreau points out that the mortality rate is far = more=20 severe if high temperatures persist for two months, or reach = 2=20 degrees Celsius above the norm for one month. He says = temperatures=20 in the South Pacific have been as warm as those that caused = the=20 widespread coral death in 1998, wiping out most of the reefs = throughout the Maldives, the Seychelles, and western = Australia in=20 1998. (See also the New Scientist, 12 April 2002.) =

NOAA charts indicate that there have = been=20 extremely high and sustained water temperatures in the South = Pacific=20 in the waters surrounding Fiji over the past three months, = though=20 not quite as high in the waters bordering the Great Barrier = Reef.=20 (Also, check out NOAA's nifty animated map showing sea temperatures in = the area=20 over this period.)

For their part, Australian officials say the Great = Barrier Reef=20 experienced "unusually hot water temperatures" in January = and=20 February, "resulting in bleaching of corals along much of = the length=20 of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park." While the officials = say the=20 problem grew less severe in March, one local report from the middle of the = month said=20 coral bleaching was still increasing, with mortality levels = of=20 around 20 percent on Heron Island.

It is possible for = coral=20 to recover from serious episodes of mortality over the = course of 10=20 to 15 years, according to Goreau, if the waters are clean = and sea=20 temperatures do not return to high levels again. With the = continued=20 global warming of the oceans, however, such benign = conditions are=20 unlikely to prevail. (For more on the risk to coral survival = under a=20 warming regime, see April's This = Just In.)

- = - - - -=20 - - - -

Leonie Haimson was the=20 climate columnist for the former Liberty Tree Alliance = website. She=20 coauthored The Way Things Really Are: Debunking Rush = Limbaugh on=20 the Environment for the Environmental Defense Fund, and = edited=20 Common Questions on Climate Change for the U.N. = Environment=20 Programme.

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March=20 2002 checkup

2001=20 summary

November= =20 2001 checkup

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