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From: Thomas Goreau <goreau@bestweb.net> Date: September 27, 2006 5:04:43 PM EDT To: coral-list@coral.aoml.noaa.gov Subject: HotSpots and WarmSpots To all serious coral bleaching researchers, A very serious misconception continues to plague the interpretation of Coral Bleaching HotSpots, which I am forced to clarify because I invented the term. The HotSpot concept was developed through a combination of field observations, in-situ measurements, and analysis of regional and global satellite SST data in Goreau (1990), Goreau, Hayes, Clark, Basta, & Robertson (1993), Goreau & Hayes (1994), Goreau, Hayes, & Strong (1996), Goreau & Hayes (2005a,b,c). The concept has been widely misused by those who do not cite the original literature. A HotSpot is defined as an area where the monthly average temperature is 1 degree C above the historical baseline average for the warmest month of the year. It is not the same as a short term 1 C anomaly, it must remain for a month to be a HotSpot. A HotSpot is a time integrated anomaly over a one month period, NOT an instantaneous short term fluctuation. We do not issue bleaching alerts until AFTER ONE STRAIGHT MONTH OF EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES. If the anomaly duration is less than that it is a WarmSpot, not a HotSpot. The NOAA HotSpot site, based on our work, does not explain the difference, or cite the original literature, and lately misleading bleaching alerts have been issued based on WarmSpots (see message below). These are jumping the gun, causing much confusion, and much more care is needed in following the original prescription. The problem is serious enough that we should not be crying wolf prematurely and damaging the credibility of the method, which when correctly used, has correctly predicted all major bleaching events since 1982. Best wishes, Tom
Thomas J. Goreau, PhD President Global Coral Reef Alliance 37 Pleasant Street, Cambridge MA 02139 617-864-4226
Date: Tue, 26 Sep 2006 13:45:14 -0400 From: Mark Eakin <Mark.Eakin@noaa.gov> Subject: Re: [Coral-List] Areas of Potential Bleaching in Caribbean To: Coral Listserver <coral-list@coral.aoml.noaa.gov> Message-ID: <274DF87D-DF85-4861-BB2A-2535A9069B2C@noaa.gov>
Content-Type: text/plain; Warming continues in the area around the northern Lesser Antilles. While it looks like the Florida Keys has probably dodged the bullet this year, there is a strong potential for low-level bleaching in the northeastern Caribbean this year. We have begun to accumulate Degree Heating Weeks in most of this region. The good news is that we have only now reached the level of temperature stress that we had reached by early August in 2005. That means that it is highly unlikely that we will accumulate substantial thermal stress before temperatures begin to cool. Cheers, Mark Thomas J. Goreau, PhD President Global Coral Reef Alliance 37 Pleasant Street, Cambridge MA 02139 617-864-4226 |
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